Confidential inspection reports and interviews with officials and experts monitoring Tehran’s progress indicate that Iran is now closer to achieving nuclear weapons capability than ever before, as reported by The Washington Post on Wednesday.
Recent records reveal that Iran’s Fordow facility is producing highly enriched uranium at an accelerated pace compared to previous levels. Additionally, Iran’s overall stockpiles of uranium fuel continue to grow, with Fordow commencing production of highly enriched fuel in 2022.
Officials suggest that Iran now possesses a supply of highly enriched uranium that could be swiftly converted into weapons-grade fuel for at least three nuclear bombs within a matter of days to weeks. The potential for creating a rudimentary nuclear weapon could materialize within six months following a decision, while the more complex task of developing a nuclear warhead deliverable by a missile could take two years or more.
According to sources at the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and numerous current and former U.S. and European intelligence and security officials, Iran’s accumulation of the necessary components for a nuclear weapon is evident, despite no overt actions indicating the construction of such a weapon.
The withdrawal of the Trump administration from the nuclear deal with Iran in 2018 has significantly impeded the IAEA’s ability to monitor Iran’s activities or investigate reports of clandestine weapons programs. As a result, the IAEA is now less equipped to detect potential nuclear proliferation by Iran.
President Joe Biden’s administration initially sought to restore the nuclear deal upon taking office, but despite efforts to release frozen assets and ease sanctions on oil exports, these attempts have been unsuccessful. White House national security spokesman John Kirby recently admitted to the challenges in reviving the agreement, stating that the administration has shifted its focus away from these efforts.
Even supporters of the nuclear deal acknowledge the bleak prospects for its restoration. Iran has exceeded many of the accord’s limitations on enriched uranium possession, seemingly emboldened by its strengthening partnership with Moscow.
Iran’s alliance with Russia has provided strategic and economic benefits, altering Tehran’s perception of its relationship with Western powers. Experts suggest that Iran now feels emboldened to defy Western pressure and pursue its nuclear ambitions, stopping just short of fully committing to nuclear weapon development to avoid provoking military action.
