China has reported a second consecutive annual decrease in its population, with a decline of 2 million people in 2023. This drop is primarily attributed to a continuing decline in births, which have fallen for the seventh consecutive year, coupled with an increase in deaths following the end of COVID-19 restrictions.
The number of deaths in China rose significantly, with a spike of 690,000, totaling 11.1 million deaths in the past year. This increase is attributed to the aging population and the impact of COVID-19 outbreaks that began in December 2022 and extended into February the following year.
China’s total population now stands at 1.4 billion, and according to U.N. estimates, China has slipped to second place in terms of population, behind India.
The declining birth rate poses a long-term economic and societal challenge for China. Despite government incentives and the relaxation of the one-child policy to allow up to three children, women are having fewer babies. This trend, combined with longer life expectancy due to improved healthcare, results in an aging population that could potentially slow economic growth, strain government finances, and pose challenges in providing for an elderly population with fewer working-age individuals.
Experts anticipate that this population decline will persist for decades, even if the fertility rate rebounds. Demographers estimate that the proportion of the population aged 65 or older could double to over 30% by 2050.
In response to these demographic shifts, the Chinese government has issued guidelines to develop the “silver” economy and enhance the well-being of older citizens. These measures include expanding geriatric healthcare and nursing care, promoting products suitable for older individuals, addressing scams targeting the elderly, and making it easier for them to use technology such as television.
While local governments offer incentives for having more children, such as cash payments and extended maternity leave, many couples are choosing to delay marriage or remain childless due to the high costs of raising children in urban areas and intense academic competition. Additionally, the population of women of child-bearing age has decreased.
China’s working-age population, defined as those between 16 and 59 years old, continues to decline gradually, constituting 61% of the total population, while the proportion of those aged 60 and older has risen to 21%. The official retirement age in China is 60 for men and 50 or 55 for women.
The exact number of COVID-19-related deaths in China remains unclear, as the sudden end to the “zero-COVID” restrictions in December 2022 led to discrepancies in reported numbers. The government officially reported around 80,000 COVID-related deaths from December to mid-February, but experts believe the actual number was significantly higher, with estimates ranging from 1.4 million to 1.9 million.
While the population decline may be less pronounced this year due to the easing of pandemic effects and the auspicious nature of the “Year of the Dragon” for childbirth, experts anticipate a long-term trend of population decline in China.
