According to a recent survey conducted by the Economist and YouGov, Americans hold diverse opinions about the potential outcome of the 2024 presidential election.
In a hypothetical matchup between former President Donald Trump and current President Joe Biden, respondents were asked not about their personal preferences but about their perceptions of who would win in such a scenario.
The survey findings reveal a split sentiment among participants, with both Trump and Biden receiving 44% support in a head-to-head contest. However, when asked who they believed would emerge victorious, 45% of respondents predicted Trump’s win, while only 34% foresaw a Biden triumph. Notably, 21% remained undecided on the matter.
Among registered voters, confidence in Trump’s victory was slightly higher, with 44% backing him compared to 37% supporting Biden.
The confidence gap widened significantly along party lines, with 84% of Republicans expressing belief in Trump’s success, in contrast to 73% of Democrats who favored Biden.
Independents also leaned towards Trump, with 45% expecting his victory compared to 21% who predicted a win for Biden. This 24-point difference underscores the distinct preference for Trump among independent voters.
The survey, conducted from February 11 to 13, polled 1,671 adults, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.
