According to a recent Gallup survey, the Democratic Party is experiencing shifts in its support base, with some notable gains and losses across demographic groups. Conversely, the Republican Party is also seeing changes in its support, particularly among certain segments of the population.
The survey indicates that the Democratic Party’s traditional stronghold among Black and Hispanic voters, as well as young people, has weakened over the past three years. Among Black adults surveyed, two-thirds identify as or lean Democrat, representing a notable decline from previous years. In 2020, 77% of Black adults favored Democrats, compared to 19% favoring Republicans. However, in 2023, Democrat affiliation saw an 11-point decrease, while Republican affiliation increased by eight points.
Similar trends were observed among Hispanic adults, with Democrat support declining from a 28-point advantage in 2020 to a 12-point advantage in 2023 over Republicans.
The New York Times suggests that the Democratic Party’s shift may be attributed to perceptions of it being too progressive among some non-white voters. Additionally, there is a significant portion of non-white Democrats who identify as moderate or conservative, particularly on issues like same-sex marriage and abortion. Former President Donald Trump’s stances on crime and immigration are also cited as appealing to some Black and Hispanic voters, along with his economic policies.
On the other hand, Republicans continue to maintain a strong lead among white adults, with a notable percentage more leaning or identifying as Republican than Democrat.
Despite these shifts, Democrats still hold a significant advantage among college-educated voters and women, according to the Gallup survey.
The Gallup party ID results are based on telephone interviews conducted in 2023, with a sample size of 12,145 adults aged 18 and older across all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. The margin of sampling error for the total sample of national adults is plus-1 percentage point at the 95% confidence level, with higher margins of error for reported subgroups.
