In the latest I&I/TIPP presidential election poll released on Monday, Joe Biden holds a 3-point lead over Donald Trump in a head-to-head matchup. The survey indicates that Biden leads Trump by 43% to 40%, while 18% of respondents chose either “other” or “not sure.”
However, when third-party and independent candidates are included, Trump and Biden are tied at 38% each. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. captures 11% of the vote in this scenario, with “not sure” remaining at 9%.
The poll results suggest that the inclusion of Kennedy diverts 5 points from Biden’s support base, as 18% of independents express their preference for RFK Jr. Trump secures the lead among independents with 31% of the vote, while Biden follows closely behind at 29%, as per the poll’s three-way results.
In the head-to-head comparison, Biden garners 35% support from independents, while Trump receives 33%, according to the survey.
The analysis of the survey indicates that third-party and independent candidates erode Biden’s overall independent vote support by six percentage points, compared to just a two-percentage-point loss for Trump. This trend is anticipated to impact the election outcomes, particularly as independents allocate a significant portion of their votes to alternative candidates.
Despite Biden’s lead over Trump in the head-to-head matchup, the survey underscores a notable weakness within the Democratic base, with 12% of Democrats indicating their intention to vote for candidates other than Biden or Trump.
As of Monday, the RealClearPolitics polling average shows Trump with a slim 0.3-point lead over Biden.
The I&I/TIPP poll surveyed 1,265 registered voters from April 3 to 5, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.
