In Iowa, a state known for its agricultural prowess, Republican farmers have expressed a strong preference for Donald Trump as their presidential candidate. This support comes despite concerns about trade wars potentially affecting U.S. agricultural exports, which have been strained. Trump’s administration’s significant financial support to farms seems to have bolstered his popularity among this critical voter group.
As the Iowa caucuses approach, farmers’ support is pivotal. Trump has managed to capture the favor of 49% of Republicans, as indicated by a Reuters/Ipsos poll, positioning him as a strong contender to face Democrat President Joe Biden in the upcoming election.
During a recent rally in Clinton, Iowa, Trump proudly mentioned the $28 billion in federal aid his administration provided to farmers. This aid was a response to the impact of trade wars with key nations like China, Mexico, and Canada, which led to a significant reduction in farm exports in 2018 and 2019.
Under Trump’s tenure, farmers received an unprecedented amount of financial support – roughly $217 billion, including various aid and crop support programs. This figure surpasses any other four-year period since 1933, as per a Reuters analysis of USDA data. Adjusting for inflation, only the period from 1984 to 1988 saw higher spending, a time marked by a severe farm crisis.
However, the American farm economy faces challenges as the 2024 campaign gains momentum. Factors such as rising production costs, increased interest rates, and decreased commodity prices contribute to a 20% decline in net farm incomes in 2023, according to USDA forecasts.
Trump’s potential second term hints at continued trade conflicts, particularly with China. Despite China not meeting its agricultural purchase commitments from a 2020 trade deal, Iowa farmers remain supportive. They see the trade wars as a necessary step to address longstanding imbalances in trade agreements.
State Representative Bobby Kaufmann, a farmer and Trump campaign advisor, reflects this sentiment, acknowledging the trade war’s hardships but emphasizing its necessity for fairer trade deals.
A recent Agri-Pulse survey showed Trump’s strong standing among farmers, with 39% of 605 farmers favoring him over other candidates like Republican Ron DeSantis and Democrat Joe Biden.
Derek Wulf, a cattle rancher and state legislator, praises Trump for championing agriculture, despite the challenges of the trade war.
The agricultural sector’s vulnerability is evident in the Chicago Board of Trade corn futures, which saw their biggest annual decline in a decade in 2023. With global harvests impacting U.S. grain exports, potential trade conflicts become even more significant.
To mitigate the impact of trade wars, the Trump administration distributed approximately $23 billion to farmers in 2018 and 2019. Iowa farmers, in particular, received substantial aid, with an average of $42,477 per farm.
A University of California-Davis study found that soybean farmers received more aid than their losses from price impacts, indicating the administration’s effort to compensate farmers.
Despite this support, some farmers are exploring other candidates due to concerns about future trade instability. Lance Lillibridge, a farmer and former president of the Iowa Corn Growers Association, supports DeSantis, emphasizing a preference for market stability over government aid.
