In the most recent Messenger/Harris poll, Donald Trump, the leading contender for the Republican presidential nomination, holds a four-point advantage over President Joe Biden in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup for the general election. The survey, published on Thursday, reveals that Trump commands 46% support, while Biden garners 42%, with 12% of respondents remaining undecided. Notably, Trump’s lead has slightly diminished compared to the previous poll conducted in early December when he enjoyed a seven-point lead, securing 47% support to Biden’s 40%.
The key factor propelling Trump’s advantage over Biden appears to be independent voters, with 46% of them expressing a preference for Trump, while Biden captures 35% support from this demographic, leaving 20% undecided.
When additional candidates are introduced into the equation, Trump’s lead narrows to three points:
- Trump: 40%
- Biden: 37%
- Robert Kennedy Jr.: 11%
- Cornel West: 2%
- Jill Stein: 1%
- Undecided: 9%
In the latest RealClear Politics polling average, Trump maintains a lead of 46% to Biden’s 44.4%.
Biden’s approval rating in this poll stands at 42%, and it’s noteworthy that those who “strongly disapprove” of his performance (41%) outnumber those who “strongly approve” (19%).
Transitioning to the GOP primary, Trump is the preferred choice for 39% of those surveyed, followed by Nikki Haley at 18%. Nevertheless, a considerable portion (34%) remains uncertain or would opt for “someone else.”
Interestingly, in the event that Biden were to withdraw from the race, a scenario that has been the subject of speculation, 25% of respondents indicated they would cast their vote for Vice President Kamala Harris. This places her in third position, trailing “someone else” (34%) and “unsure” (26%).
The poll was conducted among 1,045 registered voters from January 16 to 17, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
