On Friday, Russian President Vladimir Putin declared his intention to extend his long-standing leadership by announcing his candidacy for the upcoming presidential election in March, a race he is widely expected to win as per state media sources.
Putin’s enduring popularity persists after almost 25 years at the helm, despite initiating a costly conflict in Ukraine. This war has not only resulted in the loss of many Russian lives but has also led to several attacks within Russia, including one targeting the Kremlin, thereby diminishing its once-unassailable image.
An attempt at rebellion in June by the mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin sparked rumors about Putin’s weakening hold on power. However, Putin overcame these challenges unscathed, and Prigozhin’s subsequent death in a mysterious plane crash two months later seemed to reaffirm Putin’s absolute control.
The Russian leader made his reelection bid public during a ceremony at the Kremlin, as reported by state news agencies Tass and RIA Novosti.
Levada Center, an independent polling firm, indicates that around 80% of Russian citizens approve of Putin’s governance, though this approval may stem from genuine support or compelled allegiance in a climate where dissent is increasingly risky.
Putin, aged 71, has previously manipulated constitutional rules to potentially extend his tenure into his mid-80s, making him the longest-serving leader in the Kremlin since Josef Stalin. He briefly assumed the prime minister’s role in 2008 due to term limits but continued to be Russia’s primary influence. Presidential terms were extended under his influence, and a series of amendments in recent years reset the term limits, allowing him two additional terms starting in 2024.
Political analyst Dmitry Oreshkin from the Free University of Riga, Latvia, suggested to The Associated Press that Putin is apprehensive about relinquishing power. When these constitutional changes were made, Putin’s popularity had dipped, according to Levada polling, possibly influencing his decision to wage the war in Ukraine in 2022.
Commentator Abbas Gallyamov, a former speechwriter for Putin now based in Israel, and Fiona Hill, a Brookings Institution scholar and former U.S. National Security Council expert on Russia, believe the Ukraine conflict was a strategy to bolster Putin’s power.
The war, however, has evolved into a protracted battle with no clear progress, challenging the economic prosperity vital to Putin’s popularity and Russians’ willingness to overlook political corruption and diminishing freedoms.
Author Philip Short and Tatiana Stanovaya of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center have commented on Putin’s intentions and the impact of the war in Ukraine on his political maneuvers.
Despite abandoning his earlier macho image and facing health speculations in 2022, Putin shows no signs of diminishing vigor in recent appearances.
Putin’s tenure, starting as acting president on New Year’s Eve in 1999 and spanning five U.S. presidencies, saw him return to power in 2012 amidst significant public protests, with Fiona Hill noting his current role as a wartime leader ahead of the 2024 election.
