In a recent Quinnipiac University poll, President Joe Biden has surged ahead of former President Donald Trump by a 6-percentage-point lead in a hypothetical 2024 general election matchup. This marks a significant shift from just over a month ago when the race between Biden and Trump was considered “too close to call,” with the president holding a narrow 47% to 46% lead.
The latest findings indicate that women voters are a key factor in Biden’s lead, with the president holding a 50% to 44% advantage over the former president. This represents a substantial increase from December when Biden had a 53% to 41% lead among women.
On the other hand, men continue to predominantly support Trump, with the former president leading 53% to 42%. This is a slight change from the 51% to 41% margin observed in December.
Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy noted, “The gender demographic tells a story to keep an eye on. Propelled by female voters in just the past few weeks, the head-to-head tie with Trump morphs into a modest lead for Biden.”
These poll results were released shortly after a federal jury ordered Donald Trump to pay $83.3 million in damages to author E. Jean Carroll, who accused him in 2019 of raping her nearly three decades ago. This verdict may have had an impact on the public’s perception of Trump’s trustworthiness.
Furthermore, Biden’s support among independent voters has increased, with 52% expressing their preference for the president. This marks a 6-point gain since December.
In a hypothetical two-person contest, the Quinnipiac survey found that former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley leads Biden by 47% to 42%. This outcome is attributed to her strong performance among independent voters.
Haley outperforms Trump in a head-to-head matchup against Biden, largely due to her appeal to independents. She leads Biden by 16 points among independent voters, while Trump trails Biden by 12 points among the same group.
Responding to these findings, Haley’s national spokeswoman, Olivia Perez-Cubas, stated, “The Democrats are salivating at the idea of running against Trump again and they’re terrified of running against Nikki Haley.” She emphasized that Republicans would have a stronger position with Haley on the ticket in 2024.
However, in a hypothetical five-person race, Biden leads with 36% support, followed by Haley with 29%, independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. with 21%, independent Cornel West with 3%, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein with 2%. When Trump is added to the five-person race, Biden still leads with 39% support, while Trump follows closely with 37%, RFK Jr. receives 14%, West 3%, and Stein 2%.
The Quinnipiac University poll was conducted from January 25 to 29 among 1,650 self-identified registered voters and carries a margin of error of 2.4 percentage points.
