The Biden administration is growing increasingly concerned about a potential ground invasion by Israel in the coming months to remove Hezbollah from Southern Lebanon if diplomatic efforts fail.
Discussions about a possible offensive have been occurring in White House intelligence briefings, with the offensive potentially launched in late spring or early summer. This move comes as Jerusalem aims to repopulate the Lebanese border area, where 8,000 residents were forced to evacuate in October due to Hezbollah attacks.
The conflict escalated after Hezbollah joined the war in support of Hamas on October 8, leading to daily cross-border attacks on northern Israel by Hezbollah, countered by Israeli aerial attacks and artillery fire.
While emphasizing that a diplomatic solution is preferred, the Israeli defense establishment has repeatedly stated that the military option remains on the table to restore security to the north. Hezbollah’s presence in Southern Lebanon violates United Nations Resolution 1701, which demands the group disarm and withdraw its forces north of the Litani River.
A senior Biden administration official told CNN that they are operating under the assumption that an Israeli military operation is likely in the coming months, though not necessarily in the next few weeks. Efforts led by U.S. special envoy Amos Hochstein have been aimed at brokering a diplomatic resolution to the conflict to prevent further escalation.
One proposal, put forward by France, suggests relocating the radical Shi’ite militia six miles from the border to keep northern Israeli residents out of range of anti-tank missile fire, though this still falls short of the Litani River by 13 miles.
An Israeli official informed CNN that while Israel is willing to explore diplomatic solutions, if unsuccessful, they will consider alternative measures to address the threat. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant emphasized to U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin that Israel will not tolerate threats against its citizens and sovereignty and will take necessary measures to ensure security.
Recent incidents, including air-raid sirens sounding in Western Galilee communities and Israeli strikes on Hezbollah terror infrastructure in Southern Lebanon, underscore the ongoing tensions in the region.
