The media, spearheaded by The Associated Press and Reuters in Gaza, persist in circulating death tolls provided by the Hamas-run Health Ministry. Even the Biden administration, including the president himself, has referenced these figures. However, a Wharton professor argues that these numbers are misleading.
Abraham Wyner, a professor of statistics and data science at The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, outlined his concerns in a recent article for Tablet. He pointed out the lack of credibility in the reported casualties, noting that the majority may not be civilians, as implied.
Examining the patterns in the daily death tolls provided by Hamas, Wyner observed a suspicious uniformity that defies statistical expectations. Such consistency suggests potential manipulation or fabrication of data by the Gaza ministry.
Despite these discrepancies, the Biden administration appears to rely on Hamas-provided figures, with both President Joe Biden and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin citing a death toll nearing 30,000 since October 7.
Wyner further discredits Hamas’ claims regarding civilian casualties, arguing that the statistical patterns do not align with real-world dynamics of warfare. He highlights inconsistencies in the reported data errors and correlations, casting doubt on the accuracy of the numbers.
In conclusion, Wyner suggests that the reported death tolls are likely inflated, driven by a process disconnected from reality. He emphasizes the need for caution in accepting these figures as accurate representations of the situation in Gaza, especially given the revelation of UNRWA workers’ ties to Hamas.
Ultimately, the true extent of civilian casualties remains uncertain, but Israel’s estimates of combatant deaths suggest a significantly lower ratio of noncombatant casualties to combatants, reflecting efforts to minimize civilian harm amid urban warfare tactics employed by Hamas.
